Sunday, November 02, 2008

Poll Analysis: Still up in the air - Surprises are highly possible

Below are Mason Dixon's final numbers in the key swing states. Let's remember that Obama over-polled in almost all of his primary contests. There are enough undecided votes in each of these states to deliver a McCain victory. The vast majority of undecided voters are white suburbanites. On balance, it looks like Obama has the edge, but McCain has a clear possibility of pulling off a victory if undecideds go his way. "McCain is in a good position to win every red state," To quote campaign advisor Charlie Black: "he is probably going to win Pennsylvania and Iowa."

Colorado: Obama 49, McCain 44, Undecided 4
Florida: Obama 47, McCain 45, Undecided 7
Nevada: Obama 47, McCain 43, Undecided 8
Pennsylvania: 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9
Virginia: Obama 47, McCain 44, Undecided 9
Ohio: McCain 47, Obama 45, Undecided 6
Missouri: McCain 47, Obama 46, Undecided 5
North Carolina: McCain 49, Obama 46, Undecided 5

The most accurate poll of 2004 was the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll. They have their next to final national numbers out at:

Obama: 46.7%
McCain: 44.6%
Undecideds: 8.7% (Again, almost all undecideds are white).

The rest of the polls haven't put in their final numbers yet, but as of now, they all show Obama wining by an average of 6.4% nationally. Please remember that Obama over-polled by an average of 7% in the primaries. If the same holds true. The race will be close... very close.

Gallop just posted their final poll for the 2008 presidential election: They are calling it:

Obama 55%
McCain: 44%

An eleven point landslide. Gallop may be seriously embarrassed... or come out smelling like geniuses?

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