Monday, November 03, 2008

Bottom Line: If the Polling Models are Correct, Obama Wins. If They Are Wrong, McCain Can Win

With less than 24 hours to go, every major poll in the United States has Obama up by various percentage points. Our only hope here is that the polling models are wrong:

That Democrat turnout projections are overestimated; that expanded 'likely voter' models are off the mark; that 'undecideds' will break for McCain; that those who declined to participate in the polls are mostly McCain supporters; that a percentage of those polled lied to the pollsters...etc...

A possibility? YES. A probability? NO.


  1. That's a good point. The polls seem to be all over the place. For instance, CBS has Obama up 13%. IBD TIPP has them 2% apart. It's hard to tell. I do however think it's going to be close.


    Need I say more?

    Get out and VOTE!!!!


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