Sunday, October 19, 2008

My Day of Depressing Exit Polling In Nevada

The Neocon Express just spent a depressing 3 hours conducting an exit poll at a Las Vegas early voting station. The Location was in a more affluent Western suburb of Las Vegas, on the edge of Summerlin; More specifically, at the Vons shopping center on Rampart, between Charleston and Sahara. It was a glorious day in Las Vegas so what better way to spend a few hours than by hanging outside a polling station and randomly sampling voters, right?

Nevada is a swing state, and the middle to upper middle class suburbs of Las Vegas, like this location, are a crucial indicator of how the state might go. Early voting started at this location yesterday and the lines have been long and non-stop all day, with people waiting in line an average of 45 minutes to cast their votes.

I randomly interviewed over 150 voters after they cast their ballots. I stood outside with a clipboard and certainly looked the part of a pollster. My question went like this: “Hi, I am conducting a quick, random exit poll; of course all participants are anonymous. Was it John McCain or Barack Obama for you?”

I could not possibly have talked to everyone who voted during the three hour time frame but I got a very good random sample. The results were devastating to me.

Let’s get to the results:

Obama: 70%
McCain: 26%
Other 4%

If I calculate the number of people who declined to give an answer, than the breakdown went like this:

Obama 53%
McCain 20%
Other 3%
Declined to participate: 24%.

My gut instinct tells me that the vast majority of those who “declined to participate” were McCain supporters, but of course, I have no way of knowing that for sure.

These were not just registered voters, or even a likely-voter sampling, these were actual voters who had already cast their ballots and were interviewed as they walked outside the polling place in a relatively affluent, and a relatively white area of Las Vegas. One would expect this area to be far tighter, with perhaps a small advantage to McCain.

The results of this poll could reflect a number of things, but one thing that it certainly reflects is a greater degree of enthusiasm on the part of Obama supporters who are rushing to the polls early, eager to cast their ballot. About 15 percent of those interviewed were African Americas, and not a single African American I interviewed voted for McCain, and a number thought I was crazy for even asking “Obama or McCain?” One African American lady later returned to me to apologize for scoffing at the idea that I even asked her about McCain. She assured me that she voted for Obama “because he was the best man, not because of his race.”

Anyway, that's how I spent three hours of my weekend and as a McCain supporter, it was deeply depressing. McCain will need to carry rural and Northern Nevada by a wide margin to overcome what will certainly be a devastating lose in Clark County.

Joe Gelman

Meanwhile, LGF posted this video of Obama supporters "getting in their faces" as commanded by the Messiah:


  1. I think my favorite was "College kids for Obama". Socialism is good for American. I would like to know what college they attend so that I know not to let my kids waste our money there.

  2. About Barack Hussein Obama:

    Poll finds Americans reject redistribution of wealth as suggested by Barack Hussein Obama

    PRINCETON, NJ -- When given a choice about how government should address the numerous
    economic difficulties facing today's consumer, Americans overwhelmingly -- by 84% to
    13% -- prefer that the government focus on improving overall economic conditions and
    the jobs situation in the United States as opposed to taking steps to distribute wealth
    more evenly among Americans.


    Barack Hussein Obama is a national security risk: a clear and present danger.

    Quote from the Barack Obama book, Audacity of Hope, “I will stand with the Muslims
    should the political winds shift in an ugly direction.” And this man wants to be
    President? I and several tens of millions of people think NOT.


    On February 27, 2007, Barack Obama said the Muslim call to prayer is "one of the
    prettiest sounds on Earth." In an interview with The New York Times, Senator Obama
    recited, "with a first-class [Arabic] accent," the opening lines of this Muslim prayer:

    "Allah is Supreme! Allah is Supreme!
    Allah is Supreme! Allah is Supreme!
    I witness that there is no god but Allah
    I witness that there is no god but Allah
    I witness that Muhammad is his prophet... "


    Dubai Ports rejection helped US economic growth

    Reject Barack Hussein Obama, the Dubai candidate and help US economic growth!

    Obama is a national threat:

    Quote from the Barack Obama book, Audacity of Hope by Barack Obama: “I will stand with the Muslims should the political winds shift in an ugly direction.”

    And this man wants to be President? I and several tens of millions of people think NOT.

  3. i'm not afraid of muslims or the KKK. so when did americans become a bunch of pussies?

  4. Now you listen to me, Mister:

    Obama's left too many threads hanging out there - he's gotta unravel. Joe Biden's big mouth (like today) don't hurt either, but - count on it - something's gonna give: there's just too much "stuff". I don't even think he's gonna make it to election day, hiding as much stuff as he is and thinking he's getting away with it. Makes you stupid.

    You stay up - and thanks for everything:

    We're gonna win this thing,


  5. Thanks for the encouragment CMC. I came back yesterday completly depressed.

  6. Couple of things:

    If the tax breaks and govt handouts are all or mainly going to the wealthy and big corporations, how do you expect to generate jobs in America? The money should be spent on companies that don't export their jobs overseas i.e. instead of providing $ carte blanche as Bush did, provide this as incentive. Make sense?

    I've no love for Islam either - not just 'radical Islam' but the whole package - but siding with Israel at every turn and leaving the concerns of the Arab world (esp. Palestine) to rot only causes resentment and hostility. Have you noticed?

    Personalities and crime connections aside, you've been spending like there's no tomorrow and now the chickens are coming home to roost. You need an inclusive leader, who is prepared to focus on the economy, rein in spending, and look after the middle class and lower middle class. The filthy rich can take care of themselves.

    I'm fascinated at the way you portray Democrats as race-baiting airheads who like the idea of voting for the black guy when, in truth, Obama is very 'on message', with specific policies addressing the disenfranchised. If he wins, that'll be why. And if McCain loses it will be because he wasted time portraying the other guy as in bed with crooks instead of explaining what he will do to turn things around.

    If your job's under threat and you've got bills to pay, who're you going to vote for?

  7. Cleanly and respectfully submitted. Thank you for the update on the results of your exit poll. The people are speaking; is that really so bad?

  8. Thank you for sharing the results of your exit poll. However, I watched the entire video you had posted and I saw nothing that validated your snide caption "LGF posted this video of Obama supporters "getting in their faces" as commanded by the Messiah." In fact, the video person was getting in the face of the Obama supporters and heckling them. I don't appreciate you spreading untruths and hateful, devisive comments like "Obama is the Messiah." That is the reason so many people are turning away from the Republican party. Maybe if you stopped the hatemongering and misrepresentations, your exit poll would have had better results. That kind of crazy talk gives neocons a bad name. We are one America and it is time for unity and acceptance, NOT division and hate-spreading.

    Here's a video of McCain supporters I admire (the ones who STOPPED the racist/ hateful comments, obviously not the ones making them... yuck.)

  9. Dear Yelleka,
    Thanks for the comment, but this is not a blog for touchy-feely, overly sensitive prissies. It is an openly and unabashedly partisan and hopefully as truthful as possible blog, for folks who either want to confirm what they are already thinking and looking for different angles or are interested in learning how the opposition thinks. Of just have a curious mind and are interested in other perspectives. As for the video, it was of Obama supporters who came out specifically to heckle McCain supporters who were standing in line across the street to get into a McCain event that was publicized in advance. They were there to heckle. Nice try.

  10. Obama 'admits' Kenyan birth?
    Barack Obama and his campaign doesn't respond to claims in lawsuit over birth certificate. Attorney Phillip J. Berg to file for summary judgment today.

  11. McCain supports the Progressive Tax that currently exists in this country. He's a "socialist," too! The only difference is he wants to spread the "wealth" of the middle class to the corporate class. He wants the MIDDLE CLASS to pay for corporate welfare. Freaky!


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