Sunday, October 26, 2008

If You Look Carefully, There Are Signs of Hope for McCain...


I have already voted for McCain, the big-time pollsters based in New York and California have it for Obama. But if you look carefully, there are signs of hope:

1) During the primaries, Obama consistently polled better in exit polls than he actually performed, usually by a margin of about 7%, meaning that if he was ahead by 10 percent, he usually won by around 3 percent. If he was ahead by 5%, he more often than not lost.

2) In virtually every presidential campaign since 1976, pollsters have overestimated the margin in favor of the Democrat candidate, whether they lost or won. Carter won by a much smaller margin than expected against Ford. In 1980 Reagan won by a landslide even though a week out he was slightly behind in some polls. Mondale, Dukakis, Clinton, Kerry... all polled better than they actually performed on election day.

3) A number of pollsters are pointing out that this campaign is unpredictable and the polling data this cycle is unusually unstable; And are flat out predicting that McCain will perform better than the polls indicate.

4) A number of polls have the race much tighter than others on a national basis, and a few polls have McCain up in the key states of Florida and Ohio for example. One polling company even received death threats today for releasing a poll showing McCain pulling ahead in Ohio.

On balance, I would say that Obama has a slight advantage but certainly does not have this thing in the bag as much of the media seem to be proclaiming. There is clearly a concerted effort by a large element of the media establishment who are clearly in the tank for Obama to demoralize and suppress Republican turnout by giving the impression that this is over. DON'T FALL FOR IT. GO TO THE POLLS AND VOTE!!!

5 comments:

  1. I totally needed positivity at this moment. Thank you! :)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hang in there young lady. Some of us have been here before and it dosn't always turn out bad.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I already voted for McCain. We will carry Colorado

    ReplyDelete
  4. *

    Should The top management of the Public listed company be responsible for the company performance, eg company nearly get wind up?

    http://bailoutmovie.blogspot.com/

    Are you a Partisan?

    Should they give their view......? If any party did not give their views, send it to their supporter to question them....

    ReplyDelete
  5. If Virginia goes for Obama you can go to bed early. I am not sanguine about the upcoming election, however a bloodbath at the polls may be just what the GOP needs to get back to their core beliefs, as painful and socially destructive as that may turn out to be.

    ReplyDelete

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