Hezbollah: Strong Israeli response surprised us

Neocon Analysis:
The Israeli strategy is beginning to unfold and become more apparent to the casual observer. Clearly, Hezbollah (and many others) expected Israel, as in the past, to rush in large columns of armor and infantry 20 miles north to the Litani River, bypassing population centers to be dealt with later. Instead, unlike in the past, Israel has taken its time to warn all Lebanese civilians to evacuate, clearing the field to the extent possible. They then proceeded to cut off Southern Lebanon from the outside world, restricting movement, reinforcement into, or escape from the area, and commencing with a huge bombardment campaign from ground artillery, sea and air. In phase two which began 48 hours ago, the IDF began a patient, slow and deliberate movement into booby-trapped Southern Lebanon villages, directly confronting Hezbollah terror-fighters, and learning Hezbollah tactics before expanding the campaign on the ground.

Hezbollah are clearly surprised by the magnitude of the Israeli response, and were unprepared for the deliberate pace of IDF tactics. They expected IDF columns to move in quicker and for Hezbollah to commence with a pre-coordinated insurgency campaign against vulnerable IDF supply lines. Politically speaking, Hezbollah certainly anticipated greater pressure from the Israeli public on the Israeli government to cease the on-going rocket attacks, thus causing the Israeli government to make hasty and costly military decisions. They also expected wider Arab support (not the criticism that they got) and more pressure from the “International Community” to bring about a quick cease fire.

Israeli tactics have been effective and have up to this point kept Israeli casualties to a minimum. But the clock is ticking and the pace on the ground will certainly need to be quickened in the coming days. The patience of Israeli civilians living in bomb shelters is not unlimited, and the “International Community” is likely to up the pressure for a “cease fire” in the coming days.
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Tags: Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, G-8 Summit, Hezbollah, Fox News, CNN, Media
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